It seems strange that with all the talk about the Crimea there is an issue that no-one seems to be talking about:
How could Ukraine join NATO with a Russian base on its territory?
It has often been mentioned that NATO membership is not possible if the applicant is currently engaged in a conflict.
But how could Ukraine join NATO if there is a Russian naval base on its territory, whether Ukraine 'owns' the Crimea or not.
If the Crimea were handed back to Ukraine that would presumably mean no NATO membership, unless the Sevastopol lease was annulled somehow, which in turn would likely mean another war with Russia.
If the Crimea remains in Russian hands, then, once the war is over, presumably that removes all obstacles and frees up Ukraine to join NATO.
Perhaps that is why the current US administration wants Ukraine to give up the Crimea because even though the US says 'no NATO for Ukraine' today, a future administration may reverse that decision and in that case, not having a Russian naval base to contend with on Ukrainian territory, there would be no impediment to Ukraine joining.
Then NATO could just build a new naval base next door.
Is this all part of a cunning plan?