In the wake of recent Ukrainian corruption scandals, it's become increasingly clear that what the Kiev elites fear most is not Russia but the federalization of Ukraine.
Why, because:
- Federalization moves power away from the centre (Kiev) and the control of central elites
- Federalization reduces the potential size of an oligarch's power-base
- Federalization reduces the depth of the money-trough for corruption
- Federalization threatens to undermine the integrity of the short-lived, fragile and divided Ukrainian state
- Federalization would never be acceptable to right-wing nationalists who would use violence to prevent it
This is not a Zelensky 'issue' rather it is a systemic problem that the state of Ukraine seems unable to overcome.
A federal system has generally worked well in the USA - although Trump is stress-testing it - as has 'devolution' in the UK.
Admittedly, devolution - the devolving of power from London/Westminster to the regions (Scotland, Northern Island and Wales) - was the term used by the UK to avoid using the 'federal' word, which the public might have kicked back against.
But for all it's problems, the UK is actually a functioning democracy and none of the five points above were ever really genuine concerns.
There was a scare when it looked like a referendum might allow Scotland to devolve completely from the UK and undermine the integrity of the United Kingdom, but this did not happen.
Unfortunately what has actually happened in Ukraine is that it has been forcibly federalized by Russia, when it could have avoided all this in 2022 or earlier.
As a result, it's going to be difficult, if not impossible, to put the genie back in the bottle.
Especially now with the latest Trump peace plan.